TeraFab: Tesla Builds the $3 Billion Lab, SpaceX Keeps the $55 Billion

Kind: captions Language: en So, this is not a This is not a promise of what we'll do. This is what we what we what we are going to try to do. >> That's Elon on June 8th talking about the plan he's using to sell [music] the biggest IPO in history. He just told investors not to count on it while asking them to pay for it. Tesla announced Terafact. [music] Tesla is funding the setup. But, SpaceX's own filing says SpaceX keeps it. Terafact is [music] not one factory. It is two. The first one is small. [music] It sits on Tesla's campus in Austin. A test lab about $3 billion [music] making maybe 1,000 chips a month. That one is Tesla's. The second one is the real [music] price. It's planned for Grimes County, Texas, about 90 mi [music] away. It starts at $55 billion and runs up to $119 billion. Big enough to hold more than 1,700 [music] ft or fuels. That one belongs to SpaceX. So, look at what actually happened here. Tesla puts its name on the project. [music] Tesla took the stock bump when it was announced in March 2026. >> [music] >> Tesla is paying for the little lab. And the giant money factory >> [music] >> 90 mi down the road is the one SpaceX is putting in its IPO. [music] I went back to the filing to make sure I had this right. I read it twice. The small one is yours, the big one is theirs. And here's [music] what still gets me. There isn't even a real deal between them. >> [music] >> SpaceX's filing calls Terafact, they are worth a general framework. A framework is not a [music] contract. It is an idea both sides like. No money terms, no deal on who owns the technology. And one line [music] I had to read again. Neither Tesla nor Intel has to stay in the project at all. Can you believe that? If it only said Intel can work, fine. [music] Intel is the supplier. You can swap a supplier. But Tesla announced [music] this thing. Tesla is paying to set it up. And the same filing says Tesla does not have to stay [music] either. To me, it is just ridiculous. Then it goes further. The same [music] filing says there is no assurance Terafact gets built within the expected timeline or at all. Or at all. That's SpaceX in a legal document telling [music] the people buying its stock that this factory might never happen. This is also about something simpler than [music] chips. What a company says on a stage versus what it writes in a filing. >> [music] >> One is a pitch. The other is the version they are legally on the hook >> [music] >> for. And watch how soft the big number really is. SpaceX told the world $55 billion. But the paper it actually signed [music] with the county only makes it spend $5 billion by 2030. [music] A Texas county handed it a 100% tax break to [music] land the project. People drove to that meeting and most who spoke spoke against it. The $55 billion is for the headlines. The $5 billion [music] is what's real. Are you with me? Because this is where it stops [music] being SpaceX's story and starts being yours. There is no contract, [music] but the money is already moving one way. Tesla put [music] $2 billion into Elon's AI company, xAI. A few weeks later, that company got folded into SpaceX. >> [music] >> And for its $2 billion, Tesla walked away with less than 1% of SpaceX. So, the cash left [music] Tesla, the ownership landed at Elon's other company. Now, before you write this off, let me be fair because the other side is real. This is not me saying Terafact cannot work. Tesla [music] built its own car chip once back when people say it couldn't. It worked [music] and it cut about 20% of the cost. SpaceX built [music] Starlink when people laughed at it. Now, Starlink pulls in more than $11 billion a year. So, when Elon builds his own thing instead [music] of buying it, you don't bet against it lightly. It can work. So, the question was never whether the factory gets built. [music] It is who owns it when it does. And that answer is already on paper. You are paying to build something real. And the company [music] that keeps it is the one Elon controls. But one before the next part, >> [music] >> if you own Tesla, would you be fine paying to build a factory and other company keeps? >> [music] >> Tell me below. I actually read this. And if this is making the picture clearer, give it a like [music] so it reaches the next person trying to make this call. So, you might be thinking, >> "Fine, Daniel. I will just buy SpaceX shares instead. Get on the side that keeps the factory." >> That's the obvious move. And it is [music] where it gets expensive. Two things are waiting for you at that door. First, the [music] price. There is a line from Warren Buffett I kept thinking about. Price is what you pay, value is what you [music] get. You heard about it many times. This week, the price is the highest it [music] has ever been for this company on its first day with the most hype you'll ever have. The people who actually made money on SpaceX bought it years ago far below this. Second, >> [music] >> even if you buy in, you don't get a say. Think of it like putting up the cash to build a restaurant, while the founder keeps every vote on how it's [music] run. You own a slice. You decide nothing. Elon owns about 42% of SpaceX, but he controls about 84% [music] of the votes. You will be buying the bill, not the steering wheel. I'm not telling you what to do with your money. [music] I'm showing you what the following shows. But, the onus is on why you would buy. If it is the vision, you pay any price, because [music] you are not really pricing it. If it is for profit, your opinion doesn't matter. The market's mood sets [music] the price, not how you feel about Elon. You can be early, or you can [music] be cheap. An IPO this hyped really lets you be both. And yes, [music] people are talking about Tesla and SpaceX merging one day, folding one. Maybe, but that's a someday, and it isn't signed either. Today, they are two companies, and only one of them owns the factory. Here's why I cannot fully buy the dream [music] this week. We have seen this exact movie. In 2023, a Wall Street bank said [music] one Tesla project could add $500 billion to the company. It was [music] an AI computer called Dojo. For 2 years, it was the reason to be excited. Then, in August 2025, Elon [music] shut it down. His words, "A dead end." A team that built [music] it walked out and started their own company. And now, Tesla is in talks to buy that same [music] team back. Same dream, new name, a bigger number on it. Dojo was $500 billion. dollars. Terafact is wrapped inside a company asking to be worth far more than that. The cheap dream keeps coming back. [music] The site binding commitment keeps not showing up. When I lined all of this up, I didn't think about the trade first. I thought about the structure. Whether I want to own the company that does the building or the one that keeps what gets built. I have not settled that and I'm not going to pretend I have. So here's what I'm actually watching from here. Three things. >> [music] >> One, a real site agreement that replaces a general framework with real money, real ownership, and real [music] dates. That's the day Terafab stops being a sentence and becomes a deal. Two, a real machine order. Intel already has three of the special ASML [music] machines in Oregon for testing. Watch for a full production order [music] tied to the Texas factory. Those machines ship only a couple at a time worldwide, so a real order would be impossible to hide. Three, the first dirt. A site county [music] deal, a building permit, ground actually broken in Grimes County. As I'm recording this, none of that has happened yet. One more thing [music] and it matters. I'm recording this before SpaceX even starts trading. >> [music] >> So by the time you watch, the stock could be up, could be down. I honestly don't know. But that's the whole point. >> [music] >> The price will move. The question underneath won't. So the real question this week is not whether Terafab works. It is whether you wait for the cheaper price or pay up now. For me, I will wait. If it never drops, I miss it. I'm fine missing [music] it. A few days ago I did the same thing to test out Tesla's robot taxi. Everyone counts the cars. >> [music] >> The number that actually decides it is the one Tesla won't show you. Same [music] game, different number. Click here to watch the video now. >> [music]