Elon Reveals TERAFAB: Tesla + SpaceX Building the Galactic Civilization – Full Replay

Kind: captions Language: en extending the light of consciousness to the stars. Heat. Well, we have a profound we have a profoundly important announcement to make which is uh the most uh epic chip building exercised in history by ARE this is really going to take things to the next level. So yeah, a level probably people aren't even contemplating right now. This is not in the I would call this an sort of an out of context problem. Uh it's not in their context. So we're going to adjust the context by a few orders of magnitude here. Let's see. It's It's a joint effort. I'm pressing the button, but the button's not working. Oh, there we go. Okay. So, uh yeah, we aspire to be a galactic organ, a galactic civilization. So I think the the future that everyone well most people I think would agree is the most exciting is one where we are out there among the stars where we are not forever confined to one planet that we become a multilanet species like the best science science fiction that you've ever read you know Star Trek or Ian Banks or Azimov or Heinland. And we want to make that real. Yeah. Not just fiction. Turn science fiction to science fact. Uh that's the glorious exciting future that uh that I certainly look forward to. Um and uh it's worth considering sort of like how would you rate civilizations? you know there's so there was a physicist I think it was Russian uh in the 60s Kadeshv he he thought about at a high level how would you consider any given civilization and he said well if you're type one you're using uh most of the energy of your planet and uh we actually still have quite a ways to go to be properly a type one we're still using a tiny fraction of the sun's energy that reaches is our planet. Um, see there we go. Um, but the Earth only receives about half a billionth of the sun's energy. So the sun is truly enormous. The the sun is uh 99.8% of all mass in the solar system. So sometimes people will ask me like what about you know other power sources of power on earth like what about fusion on earth? Well uh that is unfortunately very small uh because the sun is 99.8% of mass in the solar system and Jupiter is about.1% and earth is in the miscellaneous category. We are uh I think as Carl Sean I think might have said earth is a is like a tiny dust moat in a vast darkness very very small. The sun is enormous. So the way to actually scale civilization is to scale power in space. this is necessarily true uh because the the we we we actually capture such a tiny amount of the sun's energy on earth because we're just this tiny dust moat. The another way to think of it is roughly like electricity production on Earth of all of civilization is only about a trillionth of the sun's energy. Which means if you increase civilizational power output by a million, you would still only be a millionth of the sun's energy. I mean, it's it's it's all inspiring to consider that um just how tiny we are in the grand scheme of things. Um and yeah, we often get sort of caught up in the sort of these sort of squables on earth that are really very sort of minor things in the when you consider the the grandness of the universe. Um and so I think it's it is important actually to consider the grandness of the universe and what we can do that is much greater than what we've done before. um as opposed to worry about sort of small squables on Earth type of thing. Um kind of not much point in that. Um yeah, we want to be a civilization that expands to the galaxy with with spaceships that anyone can go anywhere they want uh at any time. That would be epic. and have a city on the moon, cities on Mars, populate the solar system, and send spaceships to other star systems. That sounds like the best possible future, you know. So, to do that, we need that to harness the power of the sun. And uh so a terra fab while it is enormous a terowatt of compute per year is is enormous by our sort of civilizational standards um it is still uh just one step along the way of being even a cautev you're still have a long way to go to even be a cadesev two level civilization and you're not even registering as a cautious chev 3. So it's a very big thing by current human standards but but still small in the grand scheme. Um and uh but but very difficult for humans. So to to accomplish this very difficult goal really requires a combination of efforts of SpaceX, XAI and Tesla working together to create this epic uh terap project. So, and you know, Tesla and XAI and SpaceX have all done amazing things uh that people did not think would be done before. Uh so, there's the the Giga Giga Texas fab here. Uh there's, you know, the the the Optimus robot that's being built. There's a a global supercharging network. Um there's really quite a lot. Um and it wasn't that long ago when people thought electric cars would wouldn't amount to anything. Um and there were there were basically no electric cars for sale when uh when Tesla started. Um and people said it was impossible. And now Tesla's making 2 million electric cars a year. Yeah. And then XAI although it's a new company now part of SpaceX uh has also built the first gigawatt scale compute cluster which uh in record time uh Jensen Wong from Nvidia said he'd never seen anything built so fast in his life before. So uh a great compliment from from Nvidia. And then SpaceX uh well I guess you can read it for yourself. I you already know I mean the reusable rockets uh people said that reusable rockets weren't possible and even if you did do them they wouldn't be economically feasible. So we did them and then we made them economically feasible. Um and now we've landed over 500 times. Uh and then we did the Falcon Heavy and now we're doing Starship. And Starship is is a critical piece of the puzzle because in order to scale uh compute and scale power, you have to go to space which means that you need massive payload to space. Um and Starship will enable that. So this gives you sort of just a sense of scale. We've got um Optimus there. Optimus for scale. Um and uh Optimus is about 5'11. So it gives you a sense of the size of the Starship V3 rocket. Uh Sasha V4 will be much longer. Actually the Starship V4 will make uh Starship V3 look kind of short. Um so we'll we'll expand with Starship V3 to 200 tons of payload to orbit from 100 tons with start with V3. And then you can see that just the that's just a rough approximation of the the AI the mini version of the AISAT. So that's roughly 100 kilowatts. It's showing the uh solar panels and the radiator to scale. So u for some reason there's been a bizarre debate about radiators in space. Uh it's safe to say SpaceX knows how to do heat rejection in space with 10,000 satellites in orbit. might know a thing or two. Um, so you can see the radiator is actually quite small relative to the solar the solar panels. Um, and we call that the mini sat since that's uh just 100 kow. We expect future satellites to probably go to the megawatt range. Yeah. So in order to get to the terowatt uh of compute per year uh you need about 10 million tons to orbit per year and at 100 kow per ton. So but we're confident this is feasible like no new physics or impossible things are required to to get there. So, I'm confident actually that SpaceX will get to uh 10 million tons to orbit per year. Um, and then we we're building up to a terowatt of solar. So, that solves the will will solve the solar problem, the power generation. So, then the key missing ingredient is therefore a terowatt of compute. So, this announcement is about solving the key missing ingredient. to give you a sense of um what we're talking about. Uh the current output of AI compute uh is roughly 20 gawatt per year. This chart explains why we need to build the terra because all of the rest of the output from Earth is about 2% of what we need. So if you add up all the fabs on Earth combined, they're only about 2% of what we need for the for the terowatt project or terapab project. So uh you know I we we certainly uh want our existing supply chain to be clear. We're uh very grateful to our existing supply chain uh to Samsung, TSMC, Micron and and and others. Uh and we would like them to expand as quickly as they can. Um and we will buy all of their chips. uh I have said these exact words to them um and uh but but there's there's a maximum rate at which they're comfortable uh expanding but that rate is u much less than we would like and so we we either build the terra fab or we don't have the chips and uh we need the chips so we're going to build terab And we're starting off with an advanced technology fab here in Austin. Um, and uh, and I I I believe Governor Abbott is in the audience. I'd like to thank Governor Abbott and the state of Texas for their support. All right. So, in the advanced technology fab, uh we we will have all of the equipment necessary to make a chip of any kind, logical memory, and we will also have all of the uh equipment necessary to make the lithography masks. So in a single building we can create a lithography mask uh make the chip uh test the chip make another mask and and and have an an incredibly fast recursive loop for improving the chip design. Uh to the best of my knowledge, this doesn't exist anywhere in the world where you've got everything necessary to build logic, memory, and do packaging and test it and then do the masks, improve the masks, and and just keep looping it. So, and we're not just going to do conventional compute in this. I think there's some very interesting uh new physics uh that is potentially that that actually I'm confident will work. It's just a question of when. Um, so this is going to we're really going to push the limit of physics in in compute and we're going to try a bunch of wild and crazy things which you can do if you've got that fast iteration loop. Um, that I can't emphasize enough the importance of being able to make a chip, test it, and and then make and then change the design, do another one, and have that in a single building. the I I think that our recursive improvement with that situation is probably an order of magnitude better than anything else in the world. Yeah. So, broadly speaking, we expect to make uh two two kinds of trips. one will be optimized for uh edge inference. So that'll be used primarily in Optimus and in the cars but but especially in Optimus because I expect uh the robots uh humanoid robots to be made uh 10 to 100 times more than the volume of cars. So, you know, if if vehicle production vehicle production on Earth is about 100 million vehicles a year, and I expect humanoid robot production to be somewhere between a billion and 10 billion units a year. So, it's a lot. Um, so yeah, Tesla is going to make a very significant percentage of those is our goal. Um and then we need uh a high power chip that is designed for space. Uh that takes into account uh the more difficult environment in space where you've got uh high power you've got high energy ions, photons, you've got electron buildup. It's it's a hostile environment in space. So you want to design the chip uh you want to optimize it for space. And um and you also want to generally run it a little hotter than you would normally run a chip uh on Earth to minimize the radiator mass. So there just a bunch of constraints that would you you design something differently in space uh than you would on on the ground. And um the for the space compute my guess is that is u the vast majority of the compute because you you're power constrained on Earth. That's why I think it's probably 100 to 200 gawatt a year of terrestrial chips um and probably on the order of a terowatt of chips in space. Um just because of power constraints on the ground is is probably that's probably how it ends up. space has this advantage that it's always sunny. Um it's very nice. Uh so uh I I actually think that the cost of AI and deploying AI in space will drop below the cost of terrestrial AI much sooner than most people expect. I think it may be only 2 or 3 years before it is actually lower cost to send AI chips to space than it is on the ground because in in space you don't need uh much in the way of batteries because of it's always sunny. Um, and the solar power you get, you're going to get at least five or more times the solar power you get in space on versus the ground because you don't have atmospheric attenuation or a dayight cycle or seasonality. Um, and you're always uh normal to the sun. So, you're really maximizing the the the solar power at that point. And this the uh space solar actually costs less than terrestrial solar because you don't need heavy glass or framing to protect it from extreme weather events. Um so as soon as the cost to orbit drops to a low number, it immediately makes extremely compelling sense to put AI in space as it becomes a no-brainer. Basically, um, moreover, as you go to to space, you get increased economies of scale and things get easier over time. Whereas, as you try to put more and more power on the ground, you run out of space and and you you you start using up the the the easy spots and then you get next level ni. Uh, nobody wants the thing in their backyard. So then so actually increasing power on earth has becomes harder over time. and more expensive over time, but in space it becomes actually cheaper and easier over time. This is these are very important points. So >> yeah. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. So, uh, what what you just thought there was, because of course you're asking what's on your mind is, well, what do you do after a terap? Um, don't think small. Uh, well, yeah, good point. Uh so we um you know how do you get to a pedawatt uh is is the obvious next question and um you get there by having um an electromagnetic mass driver on the moon with robots with optimi and obviously lots of humans and uh with that you can send uh a pedawatt you can create a pedawatt of compute and send that to deep space because on the moon moon has no atmosphere and has 16th earth gravity. So you can you don't need rockets on the moon. you can literally accelerate it uh to escape velocity from the surface and uh that dramatically drops the cost once again of harnessing power and uh and enables you to go a thousand times bigger than a terowatt. So, for sure the future I want to see I I want us to live long enough to see the the mass driver on the moon cuz that's going to be incredibly epic. >> Yeah. That should hopefully get us to a millionth of the sun's energy at least. Humbling to think about that. Um but a million the sun's energy would be a million times bigger than Earth's economy. So it's good from that perspective. Um and then yeah you expand beyond that to the planets to the other stars and uh create the most exciting possible future than that I can imagine. So This looks a bit like the opening in Idiocracy with the mic judge, unlocking an age of amazing abundance. Um, so um yeah, obviously the elements of that are sustainable energy, uh, space travel and a AI and robotics that bring amazing abundance to everyone. Um, and uh, it's it's really the it's really the only path to amazing abundance is AI and AI and robotics. Um, which is not to say it can't go wrong. Hopefully, you know, but I think it'll probably go right and it'll be a future that you that you love. Um, and um, it's the best future I can think of at least. So, and then we go beyond the moon, beyond Mars, and we sail through the rings of Saturn. Um, now, wouldn't it be amazing if you could buy a trip to Saturn? Or frankly, if you just have a trip to Saturn, I think you things will just be free in the future. It sounds nuts, but you know, if you've got an AI robotics economy that is anywhere close to a million times the size of the current Earth economy, literally any need you possibly want can be met. If you can think of it, you can have it. So, I think Ian Banks in his culture books has it pretty much right where there there actually isn't money in the future and there's abundance for for everyone. If you can think of it, you can have it. That's it. U which means anyone could have a trip to Saturn. It won't be, you know, just a few people. If you want it, you can have it. Yeah. So yeah, join join us on this journey. um and uh help us design incredible chips and make incredible ships and uh build a terowatt of ships, a terowatt of solar and uh 10 million tons to orbit per year. Thank you.