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Thread · 2026

Detailed Capex Estimates and Financial Models for Terafab Emerge

Analysts publish bottom-up capex projections ranging $87B-$191B based on wafer starts, yield, and EUV mix.

Key facts

  • Bernstein $5-13T vs independent $137B base case
  • Yield and equipment drive variance
  • Links to SpaceX S-1 and 1TW target
our bottom-up analysis... $137B base, with a bear-bull range of $87B to $191B
— @aaronburnett

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