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Detailed Capex Estimates and Financial Models for Terafab Emerge
Analysts publish bottom-up capex projections ranging $87B-$191B based on wafer starts, yield, and EUV mix.
Read as thread →"our bottom-up analysis... $137B base, with a bear-bull range of $87B to $191B"
— @aaronburnett
Key Points
- Bernstein $5-13T vs independent $137B base case
- Yield and equipment drive variance
- Links to SpaceX S-1 and 1TW target
Coverage (20 sources)
@LHJoshuaWrites (post) May 29 @100_yearsiron (post) May 28 @sbb_sbb8 (post) Jun 1 @Alex_Intel_ (post) Jun 3 @WR4NYGov (post) Jun 3 @WR4NYGov (post) Jun 3 thestreet.com Tesla makes necessary change fans are going to hate - TheStreet May 18 @BestTrader01 (post) May 28 blockonomi.com Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Oppenheimer Projects $29.4B Capex — 25% Above Wall Street Consensus - Blockonomi Jun 18 @aaronburnett (post) May 27 @FelixStelaAurea (post) Jun 3 basenor.com Tesla & SpaceX Launch Terafab: $119B Chip Megafactory May 27 @VladSaigau (post) Jun 2 @WR4NYGov (post) Jun 3 @rameshbende (post) Jun 3 tradingkey.com Terafab Project Accelerates Implementation, but at What Cost to Musk? Tech Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo: Terafab Faces Multiple Execution Risks May 28 ai-supremacy.com Tensions mount over AI Consequences on the Future May 19 monopolisticinvestor.substack.com SpaceX - thoughts of an 18-year old investor May 29 simplywall.st Tesla (NasdaqGS:TSLA) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall St Jun 17 financhill.com Is Intel the Big Winner From Terafab? May 30