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March 2026

Models Show Orbital Compute Beats Terrestrial Costs with Terafab ASICs

Detailed bottom-up modeling reveals orbital datacenters costing less per GW than ground ones ($24B/GW long-term vs escalating $80B+ terrestrial) thanks to Terafab's custom ASICs and Starship economics. Near-term off-shelf chips too expensive, but vertical integration flips parity by 2032. Ties into SpaceX IPO and space AI strategy.

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"Long-term with full vertical integration and Terafab economics: orbital datacenter will trend below $24B/GW, while terrestrial benchmarks escalate past $80B"

— @josephuibeh

"Custom ASICs define whether orbital compute economics work or don't"

— @josephuibeh

Key Points

  • Orbital: $46B/GW mid-term, below $50B Stargate
  • Chip costs decisive variable post-Starship maturity
  • Terrestrial costs compounding 7%/year

Coverage (16 sources)